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IAB-Prognose: Die angespannte Wirtschaftslage und die regionalen Arbeitsmärkte
Die angespannte wirtschaftliche Lage ist auch auf den regionalen Arbeitsmärkten spürbar. Zwar steigt die sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung in vielen Bundesländern an, gleichzeitig nimmt jedoch auch die Arbeitslosigkeit in nahezu allen Bundesländern zu. Der Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit von 2023 auf 2024 fällt in Westdeutschland mit 2,3 Prozent stärker aus als in Ostdeutschland mit 1,6 Prozent. Das geht aus einer am Dienstag veröffentlichten Studie des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) hervor.
Die größten relativen Anstiege bei den Arbeitslosenzahlen gibt es der Prognose zufolge in Bayern und Hamburg mit jeweils 4,3 Prozent sowie in Schleswig-Holstein mit 4,2 Prozent. Hingegen fallen die Anstiege bei den Arbeitslosen in Sachsen-Anhalt mit 0,5 Prozent, in Sachsen mit 0,8 Prozent und in Brandenburg mit 0,9 Prozent am geringsten aus. Nur in Nordrhein-Westfalen wird mit einer Stagnation bei der Zahl der Arbeitslosen gerechnet. Trotz des geringen relativen Anstiegs der Arbeitslosenzahlen liegt die Arbeitslosenquote mit 7,2 Prozent in Ostdeutschland weiterhin höher als in Westdeutschland mit 5,4 Prozent. Bayern weist auch 2024 die niedrigste Arbeitslosenquote aller Bundesländer auf.
Das Beschäftigungswachstum fällt für Ost- und Westdeutschland mit 0,4 Prozent gleichermaßen niedrig aus. Damit unterscheidet sich die aktuelle Prognose von den Entwicklungen vor Beginn der Covid-19-Pandemie, als die Zahl der Beschäftigten in Westdeutschland im Vergleich zu Ostdeutschland noch deutlich stärker anstieg. In Ostdeutschland erwartet das IAB mit 1,2 Prozent für Berlin den höchsten Anstieg. In Westdeutschland wird mit 0,7 Prozent der stärkste Beschäftigungsaufbau für Hamburg prognostiziert.
Insgesamt hängt die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes im Jahr 2024 entscheidend von der weiteren konjunkturellen und geopolitischen Entwicklung ab. „Hohe Risiken gehen unter anderem von einer fortdauernd hohen Inflation, großen Außenhandelsabhängigkeiten und andauernder Arbeitskräfteknappheit aus.“, erklärt IAB-Forscherin Anja Rossen.
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